Investment is pouring into AI ventures, but how many will actually hold long-term value? And does long-term value even matter anymore?
On Steven Bartlett’s podcast, a striking idea was raised: we may be entering an era where companies (and careers) run in 2–5 year cycles, maybe even less.
Think about it:
- You spot an opportunity.
- You build and launch 20x faster and cheaper with AI.
- You make your money.
- Tech moves on.
- You shut down and start again.
So, is this the new rhythm of business? Have we shifted from "a job for life" to "a venture every few years"? And if that’s true, what does it mean for growth strategies, valuations, and the way we think about our careers?
The AI acceleration effect
In the pre-AI era, building a business was slow and resource-heavy. Product development cycles could take years, requiring large teams, high capital, and complex infrastructure. Success was tied to longevity: staying alive long enough to amortise the investment.
AI has upended that equation. Today, an individual or small team can develop, test, and ship a product in months. Distribution is global, cost structures are lean, and experimentation is cheap.
This speed has an unintended consequence: it shortens the natural lifespan of businesses. According to MIT research, only 5% of AI pilots ever succeed beyond incubation. Another study found that 90% of AI startups fail, often within the first five years. But failure is increasingly reframed: not as waste, but as part of the cycle.
Case studies: rise, shine, fade
Consider a few recent examples.
- Babylon Health was once valued at $4.2 billion, promising to reinvent healthcare with AI. But rapid expansion, regulatory missteps, and unproven tech led to collapse within just a few years.
- Builder.ai, a Microsoft-backed “AI-powered app builder,” soared to unicorn status before collapsing into insolvency in 2025 amid allegations of overpromising and financial instability.
- Anki, the robotics startup behind consumer favourites Cozmo and Vector, raised $180 million, only to shut down when funding dried up.
In each case, the cycle was fast: hype, growth, and decline. Yet these companies weren’t meaningless. They advanced technology, created jobs, and shaped the talent ecosystem. Their momentum mattered, even if their longevity didn’t.
Contrast that with StackBlitz. Near collapse in 2024, it reinvented itself by integrating AI coding models, hitting $40 million ARR within months. Reinvention, not permanence, became the success story.
Rethinking growth and valuation
If businesses are designed to last just a few years, how should strategy and valuation shift?
Traditional growth models emphasise defensibility: building moats, market share, compounding returns. But in an AI-driven world, those moats can erode overnight. Competitors can replicate faster than you can defend.
The strategic question may no longer be, “How do we build to last?” but rather, “How do we capture value quickly and move on?”
Investors, too, may begin to adopt velocity valuations rewarding speed of traction and early revenue generation over long-term sustainability. In this frame, the best outcome isn’t necessarily an IPO or 50-year empire, but a cycle of high-momentum ventures that spin off talent, technology, and capital for the next idea.
The future of work and careers
This shift isn’t just about companies, it’s about people.
The notion of a job for life has already faded. But in a world of 2–5 year venture cycles, even the idea of “career stability” may need rethinking. The new norm may be a portfolio of ventures, each building on the last.
Skills like adaptability, reinvention, and storytelling rise in value. Workers may measure success not by tenure but by the richness of their portfolio the companies they’ve built, the products they’ve launched, the momentum they’ve carried into new opportunities.
Beyond longevity, toward momentum
So, are long-term sustainable businesses dead? Not entirely. Some will endure those that anchor themselves in enduring human needs and resist the hype cycles. But they may become the exception, not the rule.
Perhaps the true value of most AI ventures isn’t in permanence, but in the momentum they generate. They catalyse innovation, push talent forward, and move markets in bursts. That isn’t failure, it’s adaptation.
The challenge for leaders, investors, and workers is to stop mourning permanence and start mastering the rhythm of reinvention.
Because in the age of AI, success may no longer be measured by how long you last, but by how well you ride the cycle.
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